Covid and the Future of Population Forecasts

Covid and the Future of Population Forecasts

It’s hard to know the current population, let alone predict populations accurately for 2050 and beyond.  Yet that’s what many of our clients are required to do for long-term planning.

As we flagged in our recent round-table on the challenges of population forecasting, the government are currently using two different estimates of the ‘current’ population to present the latest Covid vaccination rates. This explains why the English national rate is higher than any of the regions – a mathematically impossibility raised in a recent edition of Radio 4’s “More or Less” podcast.

This is why it’s important to start from a consistent and robust estimate of the current year population by age and gender that users can rely on, at a local level.  Something that CACI achieve using a proven methodology respected by JICPOPS, the Joint Industry Committee for Population Standards, at Postcode Sector level.

We then model it right down to the unit postcode level needed by our many clients that rely on us for an accurate understanding, not just of population numbers, but also their demographic and lifestyle characteristics.

Building on this solid base we project forward nationally as far as 2069 using a consistent set of inputs at a granular geographic level to give credible and affordable ready-made local forecasts. Inevitably the uncertainty of forecasts increases as we look further forward in the crystal ball and we offer custom solutions to our clients seeking to tackle forecasting in areas of greater uncertainty using bespoke inputs.

An uncertain future

But, despite increasing computer power and open data access, it is getting harder to forecast over long-term horizons.  The following are just a few of the challenges faced building forecasts based on today’s uncertainty.

It’s been 10 years since the last Census gave us a solid population base, and many don’t realise we have a long wait until the 2021 Census can feed the latest forecasts. And whilst the ONS reports a great response rate, there may be local nuances resulting from capturing the data during a pandemic.

The jury is still out on where Brexit will level out on the nation’s migration patterns and even climate change could start to impact where people can, or want, to live within current planning horizons – potentially reshaping local populations from a complex mix of local and international movements.

This is before we even think about the unknows from potential changes in planning policies that have moved up the agenda only this week following the Chesham and Amersham by-election.

And then there is the uncertainty from Covid.  This week it was widely reported that UK deaths exceeded births for the first time in 40 years and sadly we know that death rates in specific age and demographic groups have far exceeded long-term patterns, making trend-based forecasting harder.

But will Covid also cause long-term change in local populations in other ways?

Will university cities become a thing of the past, now that lectures have moved online?  Will families seek to support their older relatives closer to home after the challenges seen in the care sector?  Is the ‘race for space’ out of our cities here for the long-term or will people have to return to work in the office despite our survey revealing that most want to return less than 3 days a week.

In short, there’s a lot of uncertainty.  And you can be certain that any of these trends will vary locally and by demographic group.

Our use of mobile data and surveys during Covid has revealed clear insights into the behaviours of consumers during the different stages of the pandemic that can support decision-making into the uncertain future.

I’d love to discuss how we can support you in creating future scenario models using our data. Please get in touch and we can discuss your challenges in more detail.

Paul Langston
Associate Partner | Communities & Government
plangston@caci.co.uk

Understanding Differing Consumer Attitudes on the path to EV adoption

Understanding Differing Consumer Attitudes on the path to EV adoption

The market for Electric Vehicles is growing consistently – of that there can be no doubt. But market statistics only tell one part of the story.  While we are clearly on a path towards mass EV adoption there are still many different opinions about electrification – some see advantages, while others perceive disadvantages – and consumers will weigh up these views differently as they make their decision about whether to purchase an Electric Vehicle.

Our survey suggested that many consumers are thinking positively about Electric Vehicles.  42% of respondents said that it was likely that their next car would be an EV, with 64% of those suggesting this purchase would happen within the next 2 years.  But this level of engagement is not consistent across all consumer groups.  In order to bring more consumers on board it is necessary to understand more about the attitudes and concerns of certain groups in order to realise the potential within them.  Because it is when we overlay the survey results with Acorn (CACI’s powerful classification of UK consumers) that we see some fascinating results.

For instance, the survey identified that Affluent Achievers (the wealthiest household group) who perhaps would have been considered a core market for EV’s are only marginally more likely to say they will buy an EV as their next car (48%). This is because when we drill-down into this category we find that affluence is not the only issue – age plays a significant part too.  The older, affluent groups within this category (specifically the Group called Mature Money) are far less likely to say they will purchase an EV next (42%) than the slightly younger “Executive Wealth” (51%).

Ask why, and it appears that Mature Money still consider battery range a key obstacle, despite their being more likely to make shorter trips. Importantly, unlike other Acorn Categories, both Executive Wealth and Mature Money are not particularly concerned about the provision of public charging points – probably due to the likelihood of living in a detached house where they could place a private charging point. But it is definitively range anxiety that is most pressing for the older more affluent groups.

This is a prime example of how the market can accelerate the adoption of EV’s among these consumers, allaying their concerns about range and amplifying the convenience factor (and reassurance) of charging at home.  Furthermore, these consumers are financially savvy, the survey shows they recognise the long-term savings on cost-of-ownership that EVs bring so these factors need to be amplified with these groups to get them on board.

With EVs it’s clear that the car buyers of the future may not be the same as the car-buyers of the past.  Rising Prosperity (younger professionals, often living in metropolitan environments) show the greatest inclination to purchase an EV (12% above the average). Interestingly, these consumers have not previously shown much interest in car ownership, preferring instead to use other mobility solutions (e.g. public transport or taxis).

One factor that has been identified through CACI’s wider research is how the spread of Covid-19 has resulted in these consumers looking towards private mobility solutions in the attempt to avoid public transport. As a result, they seek the benefits of private vehicle ownership without compromising their concerns for the environment.

However, despite being engaged in the idea of owning an EV, they appear unwilling to commit as they are more likely to wait 2 years or more before purchasing an EV. Price-point is clearly a big issue for this group, with higher living costs and relatively low disposable income, they are more likely than any other Acorn Category to admit that price is their main barrier to entry. Moreover, this group are likely to be living in urban high-rise flats or terraced accommodation so may not have the luxury of private charging points. This is identified in the survey as they are most likely to suggest that a lack of public charge points as the main barrier. In all areas of life convenience is key for this Acorn Category, so while they may be less phased about issues to do with range, they are put off by the perceived inconveniences of lack of access to a charge point (private or public). As a result, the market needs to do more than just offer an affordable range of EV’s.  Investment in public charging infrastructure, ensuring it is accessible and convenient (encouraging further investment where development is still lagging) will be crucial for getting these groups on board.

The final Acorn Category we focus on here is Comfortable Communities – characterised mainly by middle-affluent households. If EV ownership is to hit the “mainstream”, then surely these are Groups where adoption needs to increase the most.  The survey indicates many variations in attitudes across this Category, although price is a common theme in their perceived disadvantages and barriers.  Particularly interesting is the observation that respondents coming from the Groups that are characterised by rural populations are still reluctant to view EVs as a viable mobility solution.

Only 36% say it is likely that their next car will be an EV and 67% specifically quote range as a disadvantage.  While these rural Groups do acknowledge the economic advantages of ownership and recognise the convenience of private charging, they also see a lack public charge points as a significant barrier to ownership.  Furthermore, it is within this Category you will find the highest likelihood of consumers stating that it is the lack of an established second-hand market for EVs that is putting them off.  Therefore, while there are undoubtedly challenges in attracting these consumers to EV usage in the short-to-medium-term, the long-term prognosis looks good, particularly once the second-hand market for EVs becomes more established.

These results of this survey are fascinating and show that public perceptions of EV ownership are driven by consumers’ age, lifestage, affluence and where in the country they live.  Government and industry initiatives to accelerate the rate of EV adoption need to be aware of the nuances and differences in consumer opinions and ensure that each concern is addressed appropriately as the industry looks to make the next big leap in EV adoption.

Please get in touch with us if you have any questions or want to learn more about our survey results.

How Monkey Puzzle enriched their customer insight with accurate demographic data

How Monkey Puzzle enriched their customer insight with accurate demographic data

Company Background

Monkey Puzzle is the UK’s largest day nursery franchise network, with over 60 nurseries nationwide. For over thirty years, the Monkey Puzzle team has worked closely with parents, staff and Ofsted to deliver childcare of the highest quality, providing children aged three months to five years with unlimited opportunities to learn, develop and grow within a safe, secure and caring environment.

An award-winner in the 2020 Day Nurseries Top 20, Monkey Puzzle is growing strongly. It is always looking for new franchise sites and opportunities, led by a dedicated head office team. Monkey Puzzle also operates a handful of day nurseries directly, providing a benchmark of best practice for franchisees.

The Challenge

Understand the opportunities in franchise locations with enriched local customer insight.

Sophie Hailey is Monkey Puzzle’s Franchising and Property Acquisitions Associate, explains:

Before we engaged with CACI, when we were looking at a new site, the only demographic research we would do was competitor analysis. We would type the site postcode into the OFSTED website and look at comparable sites in a five mile radius. We would mystery shop them to find out about what they offered, the fees and waiting lists, to help us establish a suitable proposition and pricing for our potential new nursery.

When you visit a site, you can get a good feel for a location. This is really important, as is the competitor research, but we needed more information and evidence to back up our decisions, as our network expands. We wanted to give our franchisees confidence as well as committing to the right sites for our model. The more relevant insight we have, the better our decisions can be.

The Approach

Sophie Hailey, Monkey Puzzle’s Franchising and Property Acquisitions Associate talked to CACI about Monkey Puzzle’s franchising and the kind of information that was important in her decision-making process. Acorn  and InSite reporting would give Sophie and the team access to valuable customer demographic and local market information to enrich their understanding of new and existing sites and opportunities in the local area. Sophie explains:

The site reports we generate help us to narrow down potential sites quickly – we look at a number of factors about the catchment that tell us whether it’s worth investigating a proposed site further. We can see how close it is to existing sites, so we can avoid cannibalisation, as well as how strong the customer demand might be in the local community and workforce.

The Results

With InSite reporting and Acorn  data, Sophie and her colleagues have a clear, shared knowledge base that informs the franchise development process with consistent and up-to-date customer and location information.

Our nurseries are currently gathering postcode information from existing customers, so we can map exactly where they come from in each catchment. This will help us understand our existing customer base better and recommend how to customise the proposition and marketing for different types of location.

Sophie Hailey, Monkey Puzzle’s Franchising and Property Acquisitions Associate

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Please take a look to the full customer story here. If you have any questions, please get in touch with us.

How Business Isle of Man developed a trusted demographic model and profile with CACI’s data

How Business Isle of Man developed a trusted demographic model and profile with CACI’s data

Company background

Business Isle of Man is an Executive Agency of the Isle of Man Government’s Department for Enterprise, acting as a key decision making and advisory body supporting the Government’s ambition for long term economic prosperity. Its purpose is to help create an environment for key sectors to achieve sustainable growth whilst establishing the Island as an internationally well-regarded home for export business.

The Department has a key role to play in the achievement of the Programme for Government’s stated intention to be an Island of Enterprise and Opportunity. Supporting economic development is of strategic importance for the Island’s future growth and prosperity.

Why they chose us

  • Business Isle of Man was approached by a property developer keen to attract larger UK multiples. These businesses were asking for a demographic report, so they could assess the commercial viability case for their brands. None of them understood the Isle of Man’s demographic.
  • Jonathan Platten, Economist for the Department for Enterprise takes up the story:

We commissioned CACI to develop a trusted demographic database and map that showed detailed profiles of our population across the Island. CACI impressed us with their expertise and reputation in the field of socio-demographics.

What they use it for

  • Business Development Manager, Rachel Hopkinson expresses the benefits clearly: 

We have never before seen such a detailed analysis of our population across the island, including Douglas (the Island capital). Although our Island population is under 100,000, there is a big opportunity for retail and leisure businesses. Isle of Man retailers perform exceptionally well compared to the UK because we have a wealthy population and a captive audience. Now, we have the demographic data to show why this is the case.

  • As well as commissioning CACI to produce the dataset and report, Business Isle of Man has entered into a collaborative ongoing relationship with CACI to help provide further, specific analysis for Island businesses and investors.

Benefits

  1. Now, the Isle of Man can be considered alongside the UK as part of CACI’s trusted dataset and modelling, with the same granular, visual demographic detail. For the first time, investors, retailers and businesses can build reliable modelling into their business cases at postcode level.
  2. Rachel Hopkinson adds:

The report and dataset also ties in strongly with our ‘Locate Isle of Man’ strategy– which is about presenting the Island as an attractive destination where people choose to live and work and where businesses and entrepreneurs choose to locate and invest. We have so much to offer in quality of life for professionals and families.

Read the case study

Please view the full customer story here. If you want to learn more or have any questions please get in touch with us.

How CACI support British Red Cross identify those in need of support

How CACI support British Red Cross identify those in need of support

Company background

The British Red Cross was founded in 1870. The charity’s most important value is kindness. It helps anyone, anywhere in the UK and around the world, to get the support they need if crisis strikes.

The British Red Cross has seen very high demand for its services in the UK during the coronavirus outbreak. Since the pandemic started, the Red Cross has undertaken a huge response to help the most vulnerable individuals and communities in the UK, reaching over 1.5 million people with food, medicine, cash, emotional support and other help and advice. Thousands of extra volunteers have joined the charity, helping it to support those who are suffering all kinds of hardship and distress because of the situation.

Why they chose us

  • The British Red Cross needed to concentrate its resources on different people and make sure that its services were directed to meet the greatest needs.
  • CACI’s Vulnerability Indicators had the potential to help the charity identify specific local areas where there was likely to be a need for charity help and support in the pandemic.

What they use it for

  • CACI offered The British Red Cross a three-month trial of its Vulnerability Indicators. After validating the potential of the data during the trial period, the charity took out a subscription.
  • The British Red Cross used CACI’s Vulnerability Indicators to index UK households in every neighbourhood (or MSOA – Middle Layer Super Output Area). Their modelling revealed locations where people were most likely to be in need of support, based on either their clinical, financial, socioeconomic and digital vulnerability as well as wider health and wellbeing.
  • Information that showed the prevalence of single-person households in an area combined with the Vulnerability Indicators was used to augment food vulnerability mapping. The British Red Cross identified households with limited access to third party and community support, creating a priority need for volunteer engagement.

Benefits

  1. Vulnerability modelling now enables the British Red Cross to deploy volunteers in the right places, meet emerging needs and advocate for targeted financial and practical support for the most vulnerable people at this time.
  2. By defining areas where financial vulnerability is greatest, The British Red Cross can apply local knowledge about available support or facilities. Volunteers can help individuals and families access these. If they’re insufficient, vulnerability model insight can help community organisations and charities make a strong case for grant or lottery funding to help improve, using granular data evidence that relates to a specific area.
  3. Where digital vulnerability is a key issue, such as for people living alone without technology skills or facilities, the British Red Cross can reach out to householders using leaflet drops or doorstep visits to offer assistance and information.
  4. The British Red Cross has also made its vulnerability and resilience modelling and analysis freely available via public web portals.

The impact is going to continue for a long time. There will be people in financial hardship for the first time next year, because they have lost their jobs or their savings have run out. There are three million people who are not entitled to any of the current government support packages. Some of them will certainly be in desperate need of advice and both financial and emotional support. We will be doing more qualitative scenario planning and focusing on anticipatory work, to meet emerging future needs.

Dr Matt Thomas, Head of Strategic Insight and Foresight,
The British Red Cross

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Please view the full cutomer story here. Contact us today if you want to learn more.